Your discussion with Cowen about IQ, more complex world, etc. could be enriched with Robert Kegan's concept of "mental complexity," which he defines as “our capacity... to overcome, at ANY age, the limitations and blind spots of current ways of making meaning.” He also refers to it as "the most powerful source of human capability." [An Everyone Culture, Robert Kegan, Lisa Lahey, et.al.,
Thanks for this. Cowen is a creative thinker. But when he began to write about the Great Stagnation (along with the parallel paper by Robert Gordon) I thought he was missing the point. It is refreshing to hear him recant a bit. When the book came out I wondered whether the numbers he dealt with ignored real reasons for the slowdowns. A bunch of economists, starting with Smith, understood that growth is a function of how much regulation and other economic impediments are allowed to flourish. The GOAT book or project is worth the read.
I think Baumol's is going to start shaping the world in ways we are not prepared for. I expect that AI and other new technologies will make society much richer, and at the same time ~50% of the economy will see a lot of AI automation (all the paper pushing, rote work like customer support, and repetitive actions like driving). The remaining work will get a lot more expensive in relative terms. What happens when some versions of writing or legal analysis are close to free and gardening or childcare pays $100 an hour?
Thanks Brink. I have followed your work and Tyler's for 20 years+ with great interest. You ask him here about lots of stuff that he rarely explains but that many of his readers want to know about -- childhood, intellectual development, veering away from Austrianism, "what have you been wrong about" etc. Appreciate it very much.
This is a great interview. In respect to the stagnation, whether or not the relative slowdown in innovation turns out to be just a temporary “dry patch” or a permanent feature of future progress, will determine the kind of future we will have...
I would argue that it’s still a matter of choice. Will we get out of our own way and promote future progress? Or will we stifle it out of risk aversion and ideological rigidity?
This is fabulous. Vintage Brink learned a whole lot about Tyler. Kudos to you both
Thanks Bob!
Where can I find the podcast link? Or is it only video?
Just click on the audio at the top of this page (no video).
Your discussion with Cowen about IQ, more complex world, etc. could be enriched with Robert Kegan's concept of "mental complexity," which he defines as “our capacity... to overcome, at ANY age, the limitations and blind spots of current ways of making meaning.” He also refers to it as "the most powerful source of human capability." [An Everyone Culture, Robert Kegan, Lisa Lahey, et.al.,
Chapter 2, “What Do We Mean by Development.” Minds at Work, https://mindsatwork.com/ ]
I know of Kegan but have not read him -- add to the to-do list!
Kegan and Lahey--Immunity to Change
--The Everyone Culture
I have a short PowerPoint in pdf form that captures mainline of their argument that I could send if you want. michael.alliance21 at gmail dot com
Thanks for this. Cowen is a creative thinker. But when he began to write about the Great Stagnation (along with the parallel paper by Robert Gordon) I thought he was missing the point. It is refreshing to hear him recant a bit. When the book came out I wondered whether the numbers he dealt with ignored real reasons for the slowdowns. A bunch of economists, starting with Smith, understood that growth is a function of how much regulation and other economic impediments are allowed to flourish. The GOAT book or project is worth the read.
Excellent interview!
I think Baumol's is going to start shaping the world in ways we are not prepared for. I expect that AI and other new technologies will make society much richer, and at the same time ~50% of the economy will see a lot of AI automation (all the paper pushing, rote work like customer support, and repetitive actions like driving). The remaining work will get a lot more expensive in relative terms. What happens when some versions of writing or legal analysis are close to free and gardening or childcare pays $100 an hour?
Thanks Brink. I have followed your work and Tyler's for 20 years+ with great interest. You ask him here about lots of stuff that he rarely explains but that many of his readers want to know about -- childhood, intellectual development, veering away from Austrianism, "what have you been wrong about" etc. Appreciate it very much.
This is a great interview. In respect to the stagnation, whether or not the relative slowdown in innovation turns out to be just a temporary “dry patch” or a permanent feature of future progress, will determine the kind of future we will have...
I would argue that it’s still a matter of choice. Will we get out of our own way and promote future progress? Or will we stifle it out of risk aversion and ideological rigidity?