I arrived at almost the same diagnosis but from a different direction. I framed the problem around why material progress went vertical while human flourishing didn't — your 'permanent problem' is what I call 'the missing graph.' The overlap is striking: your 'Modern Faith' in correct systems maps onto what I trace as three centuries of left-hemisphere analytical optimisation that built no infrastructure for synthesis.
Here's a potential add to your framework: you locate the challenge in character formation and the cultural supports for self-mastery — resisting temptation, prioritising higher goods. My essay suggests it is less about discipline and more about attention. The people I see already living well in the midst of plenty aren't exercising heroic self-control. They've developed a different mode of seeing — what neuroscience describes as integrative, right-hemisphere attention — that makes the lower goods genuinely less compelling.
Your call for 'something like another Great Awakening' resonates with me — but my essay also traces why every previous awakening (the counterculture, the mindfulness movement) got absorbed by the very system it challenged. I call this the Hotel California pattern.
Will this time be different? I think AI freeing mental bandwidth may be part of the answer, but only if someone builds the institutions for the other kind of attention.
When we get to what a non-believing rationalist what is worth taking on faith, it is to me to be found in Middlemarch. The book was very much in the forefront of Substack literary discussions last year, but i didn’t see anyone single out Dorothea’s credo as significant. Maybe because it is something that has to be taken on faith. Apologies for long quote:
——
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[Will] did not speak, but [Dorothea] replied to some change in his expression. "I mean, for myself. Except that I should like not to have so much more than my share without doing anything for others. But I have a belief of my own, and it comforts me."
"What is that?" said Will, rather jealous of the belief.
"That by desiring what is perfectly good, even when we don't quite know what it is and cannot do what we would, we are part of the divine power against evil - widening the skirts of light and making the struggle with darkness narrower."
"That is a beautiful mysticism - it is a - "
"Please not to call it by any name," said Dorothea, putting out her hands entreatingly. "You will say it is Persian, or something else geographical. It is my life. I have found it out, and cannot part with it. I have always been finding out my religion since I was a little girl. I used to pray so much - now I hardly ever pray. I try not to have desires merely for myself, because they may not be good for others, and I have too much already.
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I love how dutiful Christian Dorothea recognizes that she is espousing the core belief of Zoroastrianism. But you can see how her pursuit may not make her happy but will give her life meaning.
Some good points, but I rolled my eyes at "despite all the money spent on gym memberships and home workout equipment, a number of studies have found that *grip strength* is declining over time." (emphasis added)
According to my Apple Watch I spend around 90 minutes a day on exercise (including regular gym visits) of which exactly zero minutes are spent on grip strength. And I'm not going to be shamed into worrying about it when i have a marathon to train for. Manual work improves grip strength but people who don't do manual work, or engage in sports like rock-climbing, mostly don't need it.
The real situation in physical fitness is, as the current cliche has it, K-shaped. Lots of people are getting more obese. On the other hand, endurance sport of all kinds has never been more popular.
You should consider whether something of this kind applies to your other examples. The massive daily flow of material on Substack, for example, appears to be finding readers who might, before 1990, have been restricted to a tabloid newspaper and the idiot box as sources of information on events in the world.
I don't want to lean too hard on the grip strength evidence, since the broader point -- that our sedentary lifestyles have left us fat and out of shape -- is beyond serious dispute. Grip strength is interesting because it turns out to be an excellent predictor of broader health outcomes -- and if people are entering old age weaker to begin with, the weakening associated with aging may cause more problems. Of course on balance our medical and public health advances mean that overall we're generally healthier than our forebears. On your broader point about K-shaped outcomes, I agree -- in many areas, peak well-being is better than ever while average well-being is stagnant or declining. I take it that you're more of an egalitarian than I am, but I'm egalitarian enough to find this state of affairs unsatisfactory. I'm also realistic enough to see that, in a free society, many people are going to exercise their freedom to be lazy and make bad choices.
A K-shaped outcome is unsatisfactory, but it suggests different responses to a proposition that more choices mean more bad choices. I don’t have a complete answer on this, but I am working on some ideas.
On the specific point, grip strength is subject to Goodhart’s Law. Weak grip strength probably means you aren’t working out enough, but if you are already going to the gym, and you aren’t training for rock-climbing or lifting, doing grip-specific exercises is probably a mistake.
"The key to a flourishing society in the midst of material plenty is the development of a strong cultural foundation that supports self-mastery and the prioritization of higher goods."
This is a very concise way to frame it. Getting from A to B is the question. It feels like uncertainty is growing over time – what will the future be like, what will happen to careers, what new disruptions might change everything. The general state of unease this creates is not conducive to self-mastery and thinking about higher goods. It makes people focus on survival.
I hope there is a light at the end of the tunnel: That people will be free from material wants and able to pursue higher goals. But in the course of getting there we will all be running a gauntlet of escalating competition, uncertainty, and worry. My younger son is getting a computer science degree now, and the situation is depressing compared with the 1980s when I was in college. Most of his friends are trying to graduate in 3 years so they can land some kind of a job before the entire field evaporates. The random topics I explored in college – a political science class that changed how I think, for example – are luxuries to these kids. They know they are standing on quicksand.
I arrived at almost the same diagnosis but from a different direction. I framed the problem around why material progress went vertical while human flourishing didn't — your 'permanent problem' is what I call 'the missing graph.' The overlap is striking: your 'Modern Faith' in correct systems maps onto what I trace as three centuries of left-hemisphere analytical optimisation that built no infrastructure for synthesis.
Here's a potential add to your framework: you locate the challenge in character formation and the cultural supports for self-mastery — resisting temptation, prioritising higher goods. My essay suggests it is less about discipline and more about attention. The people I see already living well in the midst of plenty aren't exercising heroic self-control. They've developed a different mode of seeing — what neuroscience describes as integrative, right-hemisphere attention — that makes the lower goods genuinely less compelling.
Your call for 'something like another Great Awakening' resonates with me — but my essay also traces why every previous awakening (the counterculture, the mindfulness movement) got absorbed by the very system it challenged. I call this the Hotel California pattern.
Will this time be different? I think AI freeing mental bandwidth may be part of the answer, but only if someone builds the institutions for the other kind of attention.
Would welcome your thoughts: https://rajeshachanta.substack.com/p/the-missing-graph
When we get to what a non-believing rationalist what is worth taking on faith, it is to me to be found in Middlemarch. The book was very much in the forefront of Substack literary discussions last year, but i didn’t see anyone single out Dorothea’s credo as significant. Maybe because it is something that has to be taken on faith. Apologies for long quote:
——
-----
[Will] did not speak, but [Dorothea] replied to some change in his expression. "I mean, for myself. Except that I should like not to have so much more than my share without doing anything for others. But I have a belief of my own, and it comforts me."
"What is that?" said Will, rather jealous of the belief.
"That by desiring what is perfectly good, even when we don't quite know what it is and cannot do what we would, we are part of the divine power against evil - widening the skirts of light and making the struggle with darkness narrower."
"That is a beautiful mysticism - it is a - "
"Please not to call it by any name," said Dorothea, putting out her hands entreatingly. "You will say it is Persian, or something else geographical. It is my life. I have found it out, and cannot part with it. I have always been finding out my religion since I was a little girl. I used to pray so much - now I hardly ever pray. I try not to have desires merely for myself, because they may not be good for others, and I have too much already.
-----
I love how dutiful Christian Dorothea recognizes that she is espousing the core belief of Zoroastrianism. But you can see how her pursuit may not make her happy but will give her life meaning.
Some good points, but I rolled my eyes at "despite all the money spent on gym memberships and home workout equipment, a number of studies have found that *grip strength* is declining over time." (emphasis added)
According to my Apple Watch I spend around 90 minutes a day on exercise (including regular gym visits) of which exactly zero minutes are spent on grip strength. And I'm not going to be shamed into worrying about it when i have a marathon to train for. Manual work improves grip strength but people who don't do manual work, or engage in sports like rock-climbing, mostly don't need it.
The real situation in physical fitness is, as the current cliche has it, K-shaped. Lots of people are getting more obese. On the other hand, endurance sport of all kinds has never been more popular.
You should consider whether something of this kind applies to your other examples. The massive daily flow of material on Substack, for example, appears to be finding readers who might, before 1990, have been restricted to a tabloid newspaper and the idiot box as sources of information on events in the world.
I don't want to lean too hard on the grip strength evidence, since the broader point -- that our sedentary lifestyles have left us fat and out of shape -- is beyond serious dispute. Grip strength is interesting because it turns out to be an excellent predictor of broader health outcomes -- and if people are entering old age weaker to begin with, the weakening associated with aging may cause more problems. Of course on balance our medical and public health advances mean that overall we're generally healthier than our forebears. On your broader point about K-shaped outcomes, I agree -- in many areas, peak well-being is better than ever while average well-being is stagnant or declining. I take it that you're more of an egalitarian than I am, but I'm egalitarian enough to find this state of affairs unsatisfactory. I'm also realistic enough to see that, in a free society, many people are going to exercise their freedom to be lazy and make bad choices.
A K-shaped outcome is unsatisfactory, but it suggests different responses to a proposition that more choices mean more bad choices. I don’t have a complete answer on this, but I am working on some ideas.
On the specific point, grip strength is subject to Goodhart’s Law. Weak grip strength probably means you aren’t working out enough, but if you are already going to the gym, and you aren’t training for rock-climbing or lifting, doing grip-specific exercises is probably a mistake.
This is a crucial issue you've pointed out. It resonates deeply with David Brooks' line of thinking. Way to go!
"The key to a flourishing society in the midst of material plenty is the development of a strong cultural foundation that supports self-mastery and the prioritization of higher goods."
This is a very concise way to frame it. Getting from A to B is the question. It feels like uncertainty is growing over time – what will the future be like, what will happen to careers, what new disruptions might change everything. The general state of unease this creates is not conducive to self-mastery and thinking about higher goods. It makes people focus on survival.
I hope there is a light at the end of the tunnel: That people will be free from material wants and able to pursue higher goals. But in the course of getting there we will all be running a gauntlet of escalating competition, uncertainty, and worry. My younger son is getting a computer science degree now, and the situation is depressing compared with the 1980s when I was in college. Most of his friends are trying to graduate in 3 years so they can land some kind of a job before the entire field evaporates. The random topics I explored in college – a political science class that changed how I think, for example – are luxuries to these kids. They know they are standing on quicksand.