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John Quiggin's avatar

"I remain reasonably confident that the United States will succeed in maintaining liberal democratic institutions even in the face of the current populist authoritarian challenge."

I'm more worried about the US than about any other country in what used to be called "the West". Trump has to have at least a 30 per cent chance of being elected President in 2024, whether or not he is convicted and imprisoned by then. And that will be that for US democracy.

Even excluding Trump, the Republicans now are well to the right of fascist-derived parties like those of Meloni, Le Pen etc. The closest analogues are BJP, Fidesz, PiS, Likud etc (ethno-religious authoritarians)

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Michael Haines's avatar

Brink, I agree that we need to build local redundant distributed energy supplies and use circular production using high and low tech, where we import electrons as designs, rather than atoms as products. That said, a UBI can be a stepping stone where it is set to keep the labor market in dynamic balance. It could be managed as an independent authority (like the Central Bank). As automation, virtualization, AI and the shift to new forms of energy takes place many jobs will be negatively impacted. As unemployment rises, the UBI can be raised. As it is raised, people will choose to stop looking for work, or cut back their hours, or leave paid work altogether, to pursue other interests. This will leave an opening for those who still need/want the work. It will also facilitate retraining. And it will act like a 'strike fund', allowing collective bargaining to better share the fruits of increasing productivity. As it would be paid to everyone, it would be very difficult for the government to eliminate the UBI, especially if it is managed by an independent authority under its own charter. Basic Income Australia Limited is a not-for-profit currently working to gather support for this initiative. See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FTe8F6qQg5M&list=PLmh_ES7MaUhhlfzPJrqk_1pnNvWiQdOdS. You should also team up with Jon Kolber who wrote 'A Celebration Society'. I can put you in touch if you are interested. Contact me at m.haines@vanzi.com.au

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